Draghi optimism on inflation sends euro higher

Mario Draghi has said he is confident that the European Central Banks policies would restore inflationary pressures in the eurozone and that the scars inflicted by the crisis will fully heal.

The bullish assessment of the eurozone recovery will fuel speculation that monetary policymakers could soon begin discussing a withdrawal of stimulus.

All the signs now point to a strengthening and broadening recovery in the euro area, the ECB president told the banks annual conference in Sintra, Portugal, on Tuesday. Deflationary forces have been replaced by reflationary ones.

As Mr Draghi spoke, the euro climbed 0.7 per cent against the dollar to $1.1258, its highest since June 14, although the rally coincided with a wider trend for a weaker US currency. In late London trading, it broke through the $1.13 mark for the first time since September.

The ECB president said all the evidence suggested the central bank was managing to raise demand. He also indicated he was not overly concerned about the recent weakness in inflation, which he said was down to global factors and changes in the labour market that meant there was less pressure on companies to raise wages.

He described the weakness in inflation as temporary and predicted that the ECB could achieve its target of just under 2 per cent in the medium term. He said the risk of so-called hysteresis effects where damage inflicted by crises becomes permanent had diminished too.

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Now we can be confident that our policy is working and that those risks have abated, Mr Draghi said.

However, he signalled some central bank support would need to remain in place and that a rise in inflationary pressures was not yet durable and self-sustaining.

Our policy needs to be persistent and we need to be prudent in how we adjust its parameters to improving economic conditions.

Frederik Ducrozet, economist at Pictet Asset Management, said: Draghi does sound fairly confident as regards political risks and the potential for eurozone-wide reforms, surprisingly so given the disappointment from the past few years. However, Mr Ducrozet said he sounded as cautious as usual on inflation.

As Draghi said, not all the criteria are met at this stage for a rise in inflation to be self-sustaining, suggesting to us that a tapering announcement could well be postponed beyond September, Mr Ducrozet added.

The ECB has edged towards an end to its quantitative programme, under which it is now buying 60bn worth of government bonds a month. Earlier this month, the bank dropped a promise to cut rates should conditions worsen.

This shift in rhetorical tone is seen as a key step towards tapering QE next year. A discussion on tapering is expected to come later in the summer. The programme, aimed at boosting inflation and growth, is set to surpass the 2tn mark this year.

Mr Draghi click here continues to use the eurozones structurally low-inflation environment as the crutch for a slow removal of policy accommodation, said Stephen Gallo, European head of foreign exchange strategy at the Bank of Montreal.

There is nothing positive for the euro in his remarks at all and were the dollar not soft today the euro would probably be lower. The general environment in the market has been characterised by a soft dollar.



Here are the hottest industries for teens to find jobs this summer

Summer is here.

For teenagers, the time off from school could be an opportunity toearn some cash.

The share of teenagers that work in the summer has fallen over the years. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that the share of those aged 16 to 19 who worked or looked for a job in July peaked in 1978, at 71.8%.

It’s more complicated than just wanting more free time:teens are studying for longer, some choose unpaid internships, and non-white teenagers are less likely to land summer jobs overall.

About 43% of teens were active in the job market last July.Most of them worked in the leisure and hospitality industry, working gigs such aswaiting tables and housekeeping.

This chartfrom the BLS shows the top industries that employed teens insummer 2016.

6 21 17 teen jobs COTDBusiness Insider/Andy Kiersz, data from Bureau of Labor Statistics


Central bank liquidity is the ‘IV drip’ of the rally, and here’s what could happen if it dries up

If it weren’t for liquidity right now, the stock market rally could be ripping apart, according to https://harbourfronttechnologies.blogspot.ca/2017/05/low-volatility-and-danger-of-increased.html BMO Private Bank’s chief investment officer.

“Any sense that this IV drip of liquidity coming into the market is slowing down at all is going to cause some issues,” Jack Ablin said on CNBC’s “Futures Now.”

He emphasized that investors have been encouraged to take on risk due to the trillions of dollars being pumped into the financial system by central banks.

Ablin’s comments came a day after the Federal Reserve decided to lift short-term interest rate by a quarter percentage point.

Even though the rate hike was expected, Ablin admits there was some concern tied to the Fed’s statement. The Fed put in some new wording, saying that it “expects to begin implementing a balance sheet normalization program this year, provided that the economy evolves broadly as anticipated.”

That part left Ablin “a little bit taken aback with the timing,” he said. However, “I think the good news here is, ‘Look, this is a potentially contrived crisis.’ This could be the taper tantrum all over again where [The Fed says] ‘OK, look, we don’t want to cause major upset here. We will continue to pump if equity risk taking takes a hit.'”

Ablin said he’s “somewhat optimistic” that the rally will continue. He prefers developed and emerging markets over U.S. stocks, arguing that places like Europe could see bigger gains than in the United States because the economy has been surprising experts to the upside.

He prefers sectors such as technology, discretionary and materials, but said he’s very bearish on energy, which could ultimately hurt the rally, too.

“I was in the camp that oil prices would stay $45 and above just because I felt like Saudi Arabia would sit at home and eat peanut butter and jelly sandwiches to keep that oil price high in anticipation of the Aramco IPO,” Ablin said. “This last little downtrend is somewhat disturbing because we have reached that 45 number.”

Sign-up for the “Futures Now” newsletter here: http://cnb.cx/2mRg7jG


Real Estate Versus Stock Investment, Which Way To Go?

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